One-year Forward Returns based on P/E Level


This was inspired by Greenblatt's comment about one-year forward expected returns in the market based on P/E level. While bears are always telling us how overvalued the stock market is, Greeenblatt seems to always come up with a positive one-year forward expected return. He uses data from the past 30 years to calcluate this, but I was worried that this time period might be a little biased due to the large and persistent decline in interest rates for this period. So I decided to look at this myself over a longer time period.


Note: 1991.12 is December of 1991, the P/E is the P/E or CAPE10 at that time, and the return is the total return over the following 12 months.
Data source: Shiller


Since 1985:

P/E level of over: 20
Number of up years: 11
Total # years: 15
Percent up years: 73.33%
Average change: 5.5%

DateP/Ereturn
1991.1224.3315.32%
1992.1222.829.85%
1993.1221.290.52%
1997.1224.2325.34%
1998.1231.5621.45%
1999.1229.66-5.70%
2000.1226.62-12.79%
2001.1246.37-20.06%
2002.1232.5922.11%
2003.1222.1712.77%
2004.1220.487.09%
2007.1222.35-38.75%
2008.1258.9829.08%
2009.1221.7813.86%
2014.1220.082.10%
2015.1223.74


The data excludes total return for 2016, but we know it was more than 11%, so the results would be even stronger.
Since 1871:

P/E level of over: 20
Number of up years: 14
Total # years: 20
Percent up years: 70.0%
Average change: 5.9%

DateP/Ereturn
1894.1226.884.88%
1896.1220.1016.82%
1921.1225.2127.09%
1933.1222.66-2.61%
1961.1222.49-9.72%
1991.1224.3315.32%
1992.1222.829.85%
1993.1221.290.52%
1997.1224.2325.34%
1998.1231.5621.45%
1999.1229.66-5.70%
2000.1226.62-12.79%
2001.1246.37-20.06%
2002.1232.5922.11%
2003.1222.1712.77%
2004.1220.487.09%
2007.1222.35-38.75%
2008.1258.9829.08%
2009.1221.7813.86%
2014.1220.082.10%
2015.1223.74

What happens if we do the above with a 25x P/E threshold?

Since 1871:

P/E level of over: 25
Number of up years: 5
Total # years: 8
Percent up years: 62.5%
Average change: 8.3%

Since 1985:

P/E level of over: 25
Number of up years: 3
Total # years: 6
Percent up years: 50.0%
Average change: 5.7%


All Months, not just year-end
Just to be thorough, I reran all of the above using all months, not just year-end.  I looked at all months where the P/E ratio was over 20x or 25x and what the total return was 12 months later.


Since 1871:
P/E level of over: 20
Number of up years: 139
Total # years: 223
Percent up years: 62.3%
Average change: 3.5%


Since 1985:
P/E level of over: 20
Number of up years: 111
Total # years: 162
Percent up years: 68.5%
Average change: 4.8%


Since 1871:
P/E level of over: 25
Number of up years: 58
Total # years: 96
Percent up years: 60.4%
Average change: 5.1%

Since 1985:
P/E level of over: 25
Number of up years: 54
Total # years: 90
Percent up years: 60.0%
Average change: 5.2%


Using CAPE10
Someone pointed out that CAPE10 might be more interesting to look at for this analysis as some years like 2008 show high P/E's due to depressed earnings (even though depressed earnings will push up CAPE10 too). Here are the results:

Since 1871
P/E level of over: 20
Number of up years: 23
Total # years: 33
Percent up years: 69.7%
Average change: 5.2%

Since 1985
P/E level of over: 20
Number of up years: 17
Total # years: 21
Percent up years: 80.95%
Average change: 8.5%

Since 1871
P/E level of over: 25
Number of up years: 9
Total # years: 14
Percent up years: 64.3%
Average change: 4.5%

Since 1985
P/E level of over: 25
Number of up years: 9
Total # years: 13
Percent up years: 69.2%
Average change: 5.2%

Using CAPE10, All Months

Since 1871
P/E level of over: 20
Number of up years: 281
Total # years: 410
Percent up years: 68.5%
Average change: 5.9%

Since 1985
P/E level of over: 20
Number of up years: 194
Total # years: 251
Percent up years: 77.2%
Average change: 9.4%

Since 1871
P/E level of over: 25
Number of up years: 93
Total # years: 153
Percent up years: 60.8%
Average change: 4.2%

Since 1985
P/E level of over: 25
Number of up years: 91
Total # years: 139
Percent up years: 65.5%
Average change: 5.96%